“If you ask me which jobs will still exist in the future, my safest bet would be: become a plumber.”
This provocative phrase comes from Geoffrey Hinton, regarded as the “godfather of artificial intelligence” and winner of the Nobel Prize in Physics in 2024. And although it may sound exaggerated, it expresses an uncomfortable truth: AI is advancing quickly in cognitive tasks, but it is still far from mastering physical manipulation and human adaptability.
In this article, we will explore how AI is transforming the labor market, which professions are most at risk—and why the future of work may actually lie in the renewed value of skills that seem like they belong to the past.
The Coffee That AI Still Can’t Make
To understand AI’s current limitations, it’s worth revisiting the Coffee Test, proposed by Steve Wozniak, co-founder of Apple. The idea is simple: could a robot with AI walk into a random house, find the kitchen, identify the necessary utensils, and prepare a cup of coffee—without prior instructions?
For us humans, this might seem trivial. But in practice, it requires a set of abilities AI has yet to master:
- Contextual perception: distinguishing sugar from salt, or a mug from a measuring cup.
- Spatial navigation: moving through an unfamiliar environment and making decisions in real time.
- Common sense: knowing that a coffee machine needs water or that a mug should be placed under the spout before pressing the button.
- Physical manipulation: holding delicate objects, measuring the right amount of water, or fitting filters correctly.
While AI excels in structured environments, where rules are fixed and data is abundant, it still stumbles in the messy and unpredictable real world. This is the key to understanding the paradox of the future of work.
Where AI Is Replacing Jobs
Despite these limitations, AI’s impact on employment is already profound. Three major trends stand out:
1. Pressure on cognitive jobs
Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, warns that AI could eliminate up to 50% of entry-level administrative positions in the coming years. Meta has already signaled this direction: in 2025, Mark Zuckerberg stated that the company would have AI capable of functioning as a mid-level engineer—reducing the need for humans in those roles. Shortly after, Meta announced plans to cut 5% of its workforce.
This trend will only intensify with the rise of agentic AI, autonomous agents capable of executing human tasks continuously and at a fraction of the cost.
2. Fewer entry-level opportunities
The challenge is not just in replacing existing jobs, but in the lack of new ones being created. Shopify CEO Tobias Lütke went as far as to declare that any new role in the company must be justified: why can’t this task be performed by AI?
The numbers back this up: a report from the Stanford Digital Economy Lab found that early-career workers (ages 22–25) in AI-exposed fields experienced a 13% drop in employment, while jobs in less-exposed areas remained stable or grew.
3. Redefining the most relevant professions
A Microsoft study analyzed user interactions with Bing Copilot and created an “AI applicability index.” The results were clear: professions built around information gathering, summarizing, and writing were the most affected. Among them:
- Interpreters
- Journalists
- Mathematicians
- Sales representatives
- Financial consultants
Meanwhile, the jobs least impacted were precisely those requiring physical and relational skills:
- Nurses and nursing assistants
- Oral surgeons
- Massage therapists
- Naval engineers
- Tire assemblers
- Roofers
- Housekeepers
The Paradox of Future Jobs
For thousands of years, human survival depended on physical abilities: strength, dexterity, endurance. Over time, we shifted to a cognitive model, where analytical intelligence and reasoning became our main competitive advantage.
Now, with the rise of artificial intelligence, we face a paradoxical shift: as machines take over “brain work,” jobs involving body, presence, and humanity become even more valuable.
Professions like nurses, carpenters, designers, plumbers, and massage therapists may become increasingly central. Not only because AI can’t replicate their manual and relational skills, but because these jobs carry something no machine can replace: direct human experience.
Fundamental Limitations of AI
Even with astonishing advances, AI still faces barriers that are difficult to overcome:
- Lack of contextual understanding: it knows what something is, but not why it matters.
- Absence of common sense: it has no intuitive base for handling new situations.
- Fragmented perception: it integrates vision, sound, and text only in limited ways.
- No “internal compass”: it lacks self-orientation to adjust independently in unexpected scenarios.
This means that while AI can surpass humans in processing speed or data analysis, it is still far from competing in terms of real-world adaptability.
An Opportunity to Reimagine the Value of Work
The impact of artificial intelligence on employment doesn’t have to be seen solely as a threat. It also opens the door to a renewed appreciation for human skills.
Instead of fighting automation in areas where AI is clearly superior, perhaps the key lies in investing in what it cannot replicate:
- Physical and manual work that requires presence and dexterity.
- Human interactions based on empathy, care, and trust.
- Applied creativity in unpredictable contexts.
- Adaptability in environments that are constantly changing.
Conclusion: The Future Is More Human Than We Imagine
Contrary to the fear that AI will take away all jobs, what we are actually witnessing is a paradoxical transformation. The more technology advances in the cognitive field, the more valuable physical, relational, and contextual skills become.
If Geoffrey Hinton is right, the future of work may be less about competing with machines and more about rediscovering the value of what makes us human.
In the end, the greatest opportunity is not just to survive the AI era, but to redefine what it means to be human and valuable in a constantly changing job market.
